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  • #76
    The Chinese do have significant and growing interests in Iran as they're even more dependent on oil imports than is the US. IIRC they recently signed a deal potentially worth many many billions of dollars to participate in Iran's oil industry. That, along with the fact that Iran is a major Russian client, guarantees that the nuclear issue won't be resolved by the toothless UNSC.

    One weak spot the Iranians have is the fact that they are heavy gasoline users but have little indigenous refining capacity. They import something like 2/3 of all of the finished gasoline they use. Take out their refineries (refineries burn very well), damage their port facilities substantially, and blockade their ports and the entire nation grinds to a halt in a couple of weeks. From there it's a contest of wills.

    Another option is to load up the B2s and take out the mullahs and leadership. Whatever comes next really can't be much worse than what's there now. Not a highly predictible solution but definitely the quickest of the lot.

    Iran is anything but a monolithic nation, it's essentially a Shia Persian core ringed almost completely by ethnic and religious minorities who've rarely been treated well by their Persian overlords. Sufficiently armed, trained, and motivated they could be a royal pain in the ass to the current Iranian government. Right now the CIA *should* be there fomenting a civil war but that would require them to pause in their jihad against the Bush administration long enough to attempt to overthrow a government other than our own. Given their behavior the past few years I'm not optimistic that they'll be able to bring themselves to focus their collective attention on doing our nation's business while W is still in office.

    Converting UF4 to the HEU needed for nuclear weapons is a very power-intensive process. If we get there before they enrich sufficient uranium there's always the option of taking out their power plants and letting the entire country sit in the dark until they come to their senses. No electricity, no uranium enrichment.

    Of course anything that's done to Iran will immediately double oil prices so the choice is a year or two of $6/gallon gas or seeing western cities vanish in bright flashes in a few years. Take your pick.
    Last edited by YetAnotherOne; 07-16-2006, 12:38 AM.
    Catapultam habeo. Nisi pecuniam omnem mihi dabis, ad caput tuum saxum immane mittam!

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    • #77
      This is an intensely fascinating thread. All these things have been weighing heavily on my mind lately, and getting all your perpsectives from your varied backgrounds is great.

      It's also pretty damn admirable that a thread so political in nature can go on for 4+ pages without getting nuked. That's a nice precedent being set here.

      One thing to think about, if it hasn't been mentioned already, is the likelihood of these people actually using their nuclear weapons. The fact is, if one goes up, a whole bunch are going up, if not all. That's, well, that's the reset button. That's the full-system crash complete with HD freeze. For everybody. My worry is that one of these weapons will get into the hands of an extremist group, in which case I believe it will be used without hesitation. Think about it - if you're willing to strap a bomb to your chest to kill a few people, it's only a very tiny logical step to hit a big red button instead.

      It worries me quite a bit if I let it, sitting here thousands of miles away.

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      • #78
        Originally posted by horns666
        W had Saddam in his sights as soon as he took office..he tried to kill his poppa.
        ding, ding, ding. and cowboy dumshit is pretty much the catalyst for anything else that goes down.
        Its a complete catastrophe. But Im a professional, I can rise above it. LOL

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        • #79
          1 pic, thousand word
          If the crowd is shouting for an encore, but the sound guy is shaking his head, ignore him and play anyway

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          • #80
            Originally posted by MichaelLitvak
            1 pic, thousand word
            Do not also forget that there are many innocent Lebanese babies dying in Lebanon!

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            • #81
              Originally posted by Megadeth79
              Do not also forget that there are many innocent Lebanese babies dying in Lebanon!
              ...which is the fault of Hizbollah using those babies as human shields....
              Ron is the MAN!!!!

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              • #82
                yeahh right

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                • #83
                  also have to say there are shit loads of us brits and yanks in the war zone with no way out at the moment!We are sending two royal navy boats out there to get them out.If Israel kills any i think our boys should show them how to realy fight.For too long that harware has been used on stone throwers..mind you iranian missles might fire at the brit ships giving every one a reason to take out Syria and Iran.

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                  • #84
                    Just a follow-up on my earlier suggestion that the Lebanese government enlist help in kicking Hizbullah out. The following is part of a statement from the G8 conference:

                    We extend to the Government of Lebanon our full support in asserting its sovereign authority over all its territory in fulfillment of UNSCR 1559. This includes the deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces to all parts of the country, in particular the South, and the disarming of militias. We would welcome an examination by the U.N. Security Council of the possibility of an international security/monitoring presence.
                    In other words, the significant world powers are telling the Lebanese that if they lift a finger against Hizbullah, it will be backed up with the world's biggest hammer. Just words for now, but I'm foolishly optimistic that it may have an effect.
                    This electric phase ain't no teenage craze -UFO

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                    • #85
                      Originally posted by jjw
                      also have to say there are shit loads of us brits and yanks in the war zone with no way out at the moment!We are sending two royal navy boats out there to get them out.If Israel kills any i think our boys should show them how to realy fight.For too long that harware has been used on stone throwers..mind you iranian missles might fire at the brit ships giving every one a reason to take out Syria and Iran.
                      Why as a Brit are you antsy to fight the Israelis? Muslim or Arab Brit? They are just trying to live while the Arabs seek genocide given the chance. Yeah it would suck badly for US or British citizens to die in this conflict, but anyone living in the Middle East knows they're risking their lives more so than those who live elsewhere.

                      I don't think you'd like the way a British-Israeli battle would turn out anyway. Unless you used overwhelming force, I think you'd get your asses kicked. No disrespect meant, I think we (the US) would too, in an evenly-matched fight. You might have little regard for the stone throwers, but Israeli military has more fighting experience than any other military as far as I know from recent history. And stone throwers like Hamas and Hizbollah threw the Soviets out of Afghanistan.
                      Ron is the MAN!!!!

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by toejam
                        You guys do realize that when political or religious threads get brought up here, they usually wind up getting deleted, right?
                        true enough. the really great thing is when threads about guitars get deleted too. it's particularly cool when threads are pruned and admins rewrite their posts. censor away...
                        I want REAL change. I want dead bodies littering the capitol.

                        - Newc

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                        • #87
                          Funny.. my parents were talking politics before the vote in the 2000 election..my folks are steadfast Democrats. I distinctly recall them describing GWBjr as a "mama's boy"

                          Maybe Dad's boy should have been more like it given Iraq..

                          No disrespect to your vote or our country, or it's leader.. just thought it was a rather humorous personal point.

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by jjw
                            ...mind you iranian missles might fire at the brit ships giving every one a reason to take out Syria and Iran.
                            The requisite causus belli for a Curtis "Bounce the Rubble" LeMay style action against the current Iranian regime has been on the table since '79. Unfortunately no one back in those days took the opportunity to impress on the new Iranian government that terrorism would be met with a harsh response, to the contrary the Iranians have had great success and have incurred little cost for the use of their terrorist proxies around the world. The current Israeli/Hizb'Allah conflict is a direct result of the fact that the international community has never seen fit to disabuse Iran of the notion that they have a free hand in sponsoring and employing terrorism against other nations. Unfortunately when push finally comes to shove a lot more people on both sides of the conflict are going to get hurt than would have been the case earlier. Being slow to anger may be a virtue but in the end excessive pacifism will always reward the persistently aggressive actor.
                            Catapultam habeo. Nisi pecuniam omnem mihi dabis, ad caput tuum saxum immane mittam!

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Shawn Lutz
                              Canada does indeed rock. I like beer and hockey....snowmobilin too
                              Not to mention Canadians talk funny too haha
                              93 USA Soloist EDS
                              USA HT6 Juggernaut
                              Charvel DK24FR

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by hippietim
                                true enough. the really great thing is when threads about guitars get deleted too. it's particularly cool when threads are pruned and admins rewrite their posts. censor away...
                                Be cool you guys. This thread can be great. It would be a real shame to get it "all gone".
                                I am a true ass set to this board.

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