The China Syndrome vs Stocks

[fett]

The stockmarket is taking a big hit today. China's Market was down 9% yesterday. This is one reason why I like stuff. But, the old stockbroker in me is just salivating to get into the market. I have learned over the years that it hurts to catch a falling knife.

[missionguitars1]

Always nice to see the tail wagging the dog - especially with consumer confidence up, sales of existing homes up, etc. Some idiot with a black box messing up everything with their silly program trading - "sell it all - I'm levered ten to one!"....

That being said, there are always stocks worth buying, it's just a bit tougher now than a couple years ago...

[fett]

I was working in the industry in 1987, "The Current Big Crash" and I have seen a bunch of sell-offs. Including the Dot-Com crash. Now fast forward. This "Market" and the trillions of dollars that are trying to grab the same "Golden Ring" gives me a hard on. This is going to be way fun. And I will be a bottom fisher. I just have to wait a while. And then it's $100K in. Just not now. Maybe, in a month or two.

[MBreinin]

Fett, you've got $100k to play the stockmarket with? Whatcha do, pawn the trailer?

Mike

[fett]

Yeah. I have money in the bank just waiting to "Go Long". I just can't buy all the Rosie going on.

[missionguitars1]

Indeed, if you are trying to time it, I think this thing might have legs down...especially with the subprime mortgage market starting to finally crumble...I envision a large supply of H2's and assorted bling for cheap on ebay soon...

Unfortunately, I need to be mostly invested, as that's what I'm getting paid to do for a living (real job, that is!)...so I find reletive value where I can....

One excellent contrary indicator will be when Jim Cramer screams "SELL" at the top of his lungs - get your checkbook out, 'cause it's buying time!

[fett]

Were you around when Cramer did his Dot Com thing for about a jillion bucks? I have been an investor or in the biz since 1975. It has always perplexed me. You can not be a rational person and even pretend to know what is really going on. I pity the poor fools that have trillions in the markets and don't even know it. That's why I buy "Stuff" and make 5 to 10 times my money.

[shreddermon]

What sucks for equities, is doing great for bonds. :P

[rjohnstone]

This is why I'm glad I control my 401k and not some fund manager.
Everything they recommended me to invest in tanked today.
I'm still young and can put some of my investments in the risky category, but I'm not near as dumb as some of these fund managers and financial advisers I've talked to lately.
I did a two year stint working at Schwab during the dot com boom and learned a lot from some of the traders there. I left just two months before it all went bust.
I heard it was a nightmare for some of the guys I used to work with.

[missionguitars1]

Were you around when Cramer did his Dot Com thing for about a jillion bucks? I have been an investor or in the biz since 1975. It has always perplexed me. You can not be a rational person and even pretend to know what is really going on. I pity the poor fools that have trillions in the markets and don't even know it. That's why I buy "Stuff" and make 5 to 10 times my money.

Yeah, I will give him credit for perpetuating The Greater Fool theory - he's a master manipulator, and to think he could sell shares in what was essentially a market info blog for millions is ridiculous. I started in the biz in 1993 at a discount broker (that is now TD Ameritrade) as an equity trader, got lured over to an independent full service place a couple years later, did equities through the Russia/Dot Com meltdowns, moved to bonds and traded those through end of '05, then found myself at an institutional money manager last year after getting royally f*cked by my previous firm in a buy-out. Couldn't be happier now, but I will say those years trading burned me out beyond belief. Thank god someone pulled me out of that hell-hole!

As for making $, I stick to low P/E stock with lots of free cash-flow, managable debt and good market positions - you could say we worship Warren Buffett...

[DonP]

I'm like you Fett. I'm waiting on the sidelines just hoping for a day just like today.