Bin Laden is dead. He was killed in one of the bombings of the mountain ranges in Afghanistan.
Given his need to be seen on video, it would be too great a victory for him to escape American bombings to pass up the chance to appear on video saying 'Hah, you missed me!'
But, his legions aren't emotionally attached enough to accept his death as martyrdom and carry the torch in his name. They need to believe he's still alive so they can believe in the cause. If they knew he was dead, they'd scurry back to their mosques and await the next fearless leader. Bin Laden's 2nd-in-command didn't have the power over the people, and neither does anyone else.
The audio tapes that have been released since then are fakes. You can't get a decent speech profile match off a crappy tape that's been filtered through Al Jazeera's website. You can barely get one from the original cassette tape. They may have a close match, but I seriously doubt it's Bin Laden on those tapes.
As for Iraq, it makes perfect strategical sense to be there: We're in the Arab's back yard, instead of in our own. Their civilians are dying, not ours. We've destabilized one half of the Persian Empire which every surrounding Arab nation wants. Bagdad is the true Mecca. Whoever controls Bagdad can effectively control the entire Arab world. They're big on symbolism, and the literal heart - or physical center - of the Arab world is Iraq. If you establish Bagdad as the capitol of a united Arab world, invaders have to get through thousands of miles of sand to take the throne.
On the other hand, Washington DC is off to the right. Attack the center of America and you take out a few grain silos in Nebraska.
However, I do agree it's time to leave Iraq. The terrorists aren't so much a problem as the tribal feuds that have been raging since the 5th century. If it's safe enough for them to fight their petty caveman territorial wars, it's safe enough to walk away from.
Given his need to be seen on video, it would be too great a victory for him to escape American bombings to pass up the chance to appear on video saying 'Hah, you missed me!'
But, his legions aren't emotionally attached enough to accept his death as martyrdom and carry the torch in his name. They need to believe he's still alive so they can believe in the cause. If they knew he was dead, they'd scurry back to their mosques and await the next fearless leader. Bin Laden's 2nd-in-command didn't have the power over the people, and neither does anyone else.
The audio tapes that have been released since then are fakes. You can't get a decent speech profile match off a crappy tape that's been filtered through Al Jazeera's website. You can barely get one from the original cassette tape. They may have a close match, but I seriously doubt it's Bin Laden on those tapes.
As for Iraq, it makes perfect strategical sense to be there: We're in the Arab's back yard, instead of in our own. Their civilians are dying, not ours. We've destabilized one half of the Persian Empire which every surrounding Arab nation wants. Bagdad is the true Mecca. Whoever controls Bagdad can effectively control the entire Arab world. They're big on symbolism, and the literal heart - or physical center - of the Arab world is Iraq. If you establish Bagdad as the capitol of a united Arab world, invaders have to get through thousands of miles of sand to take the throne.
On the other hand, Washington DC is off to the right. Attack the center of America and you take out a few grain silos in Nebraska.
However, I do agree it's time to leave Iraq. The terrorists aren't so much a problem as the tribal feuds that have been raging since the 5th century. If it's safe enough for them to fight their petty caveman territorial wars, it's safe enough to walk away from.
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