World War 3, 08/08/08 Is it starting today?

[SpiralArchitect]

I just watched that movie "The Day After" from the 80's man it's eerie how similar that movie is, there is a part where a bunch of university students are standing around listening to the public broadcast system and some guy pipes up saying they are going to fire nukes, and some brainiac girl pipes up and says that we wouldn't help the germans, but if they were talking about saudi oil, then she would be scared LOL, art imitating life maybe? just wierd, I know that's not the situation right now, but in fact it's all about Oil. anyhow, just crazy

C

[lerxstcat]

I'll wait for the EU investigation committee reports

... which will probably largely consist of "Russian troops wouldn't let us into the affected areas. They said it was too dangerous for us".

And it WOULD be too dangerous for them, because the Russians would have to gun them down if they discovered the truth, and blame it on the Georgians.

The majority in Ossetia are ethnic Russians. So the Russians will ethnically cleanse the area of non-Russians, just like the Serbs tried to do in Kosovo with non-Serbs. If they are allowed to, and in reality, who can stop them?

[SpiralArchitect]

from wikipedia:

Events leading to war
The chronology of the events leading up to the war is depicted entirely through a series of news announcements on television and radio. The Soviet Union is shown to have commenced a military buildup in East Germany, with the goal of intimidating the United States into abandoning its forces and support of West Berlin. When the U.S. does not back down, Soviet tank divisions are sent to the West-East German border.

During the late hours of Friday, September 15, news broadcasts report of a depicted "wide-spread rebellion among several divisions of the East German Army"; as a result the Soviets blockade West Berlin. As tensions mount, the United States issues an ultimatum that the Soviets stand down from the blockade by 6:00 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time the next day, or it will be interpreted as an act of war. The Soviets eventually refuse. The President of the United States puts all U.S. military personnel around the world on alert.

On Saturday, September 16, the film states that NATO forces in West Germany invade East Germany through the Helmstedt checkpoint to free Berlin. The Soviets hold the Marienborn corridor and inflict heavy casualties on NATO troops. Two Soviet-built MiG-25s fly over West German airspace and bomb a NATO munitions storage facility, but also hit a school and a hospital. Through a radio news broadcast, viewers learn that the Soviet capital, Moscow, is being evacuated, and at this point people in major U.S. cities are shown to begin mass evacuations. Soviet forces counter the NATO advance by invading West Germany through the Fulda Gap; NATO counterattacks and comes to the assistance of West Germany. There follow unconfirmed reports that nuclear weapons are used in Wiesbaden and in the outskirts of Frankfurt. Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf, naval warfare erupts, as radio reports tell of ship sinkings on both sides.

Viewers then learn that the Soviet Army has reached the Rhine. Not wanting Soviet forces to invade France and the rest of Western Europe, the U.S. halts the Soviet advance by airbursting three low-yield nuclear bombs over advancing Soviet troops. Soviet forces counter by launching a nuclear attack on NATO's European headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. In response, the United States Strategic Air Command begins scrambling some of its B-52 bombers.

After the initial nuclear exchange in Europe, the United States is shown to enact its "launch on warning" policy: it will launch a full-scale nuclear attack on the Soviet Union if the U.S. receives indication that the Soviet Union is preparing to do the same against the United States.

The Soviet Air Force then destroys an Airborne Early Warning station in England (likely a reference to the BMEWS station RAF Fylingdales) and another at Beale Air Force Base in Marysville, California. Meanwhile, on board the Strategic Air Command Airborne Command Center, the order comes in from the President of the United States for a full nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. Almost simultaneously, an Air Force officer receives a report that a massive Soviet nuclear assault against the United States has been launched, stating "32 targets in track, with 10 impacting points." Another airman receives a report that over 300 ICBMs are inbound."

[lerxstcat]

Since all that refers to the Soviet Union, it must be a scenario written sometime before 1991. Of course there's one Germany now and Russia doesn't have the buffer states of the Warsaw Pact anymore.

One thing that sounds unlikely in that scenario is Soviet bombers making it to England and California through NATO and NORAD without being stopped enroute. I also don't think NATO would let Soviet forces reach the Rhine River before using tactical nukes to stop them. So it's a nice fanciful scenario, probably full of artistic license.

The big tactical nuke battle in Europe would probably be fought in Poland and Ukraine if it happened today. I do think that such a battle would be horrible enough to make both sides stop and take stock before just launching the end of the world.

But if it didn't, well we're doomed eventually anyway. One day a big asteroid will come in, or a supervolcano like Yellowstone caldera will erupt, and that's the end of humankind anyway. Nobody lives forever, including species - even us.

[SpiralArchitect]

yeah sorry, that was an excerpt from wikipedia about the movie I was talking about in my above post called "The Day After" its from 1983, sorry I should have explained.

anyhow I realise there is plenty of artistic license, but I believe the US still used the "launch on warning" policy so regardless of them trying to talk it out if nukes have already gone off and there is even the idea floating around then boom! ahh I suppose we are getting off topic here, or maybe not, and I'm not trying to be sensational about the whole situation, it just seems every hour I turn CNN back on some new awful thing is happening, and it's hard to separate life and manipulated media sometimes,

most times I just want to throw out my TV

anyhow I'm gunna go play guitar!

C

[horns666]

I was watching Larry King. Gorbrachev is very cool and diplomatic. The Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili seems like an asshole..yep, he's the agressor. No doubt..he's a very angry man..more like beligerant!

Remember guys..I KNOW people. I read people like a book..and it doesn't take long. I'm a fuggin' speed reader!

Just my observation.

[Endrik]

you don't KNOW shit when it comes to Eastern Europe

[horns666]

you don't KNOW shit when it comes to Eastern Europe

Nope..no E, I have no fuggin' clue.

But I do know people..we haven't changed much since Adam & Evil..

I'm just not getting any good vibes from this at all...my lack of trust on our end..

Like I said..when it comes to this stuff..I'll take your word for it Endrik..you're over there. I'm in Cleveland Ohio..and it really blows over here..:ROTF:

[Endrik]

Georgians are pretty hot tempered and emotional... I can't blame the guy for going apeshit because his country is being attacked... that's not the time to act nice and collect potential votes... at least not there... maybe the politicians you know would act that way.

Russian politicians are some of the best demagogues, propaganda artists, and bullshitters ever.
In front of the wide international public they act like everything is a ok. Like a couple of days ago they said "what war, there's no war going on" and then some days later Medvedev said that they stopped the war action for now.
Or the example when they said "we are keeping the peace, we don't do any military action in Georgia" while some of the European reporters got injured by the Russian bombs.

They are very good at it... always have been... my favorite was how Winter War started durning the WWII. Russians blew up their own men on Soviet-Finland border and said that the Finns did it. And then they had the right to attack Finland.

No help for your street-smarts here... they Russian politicians will out smart you. They are horrible human beings but very clever. No one shouldn't underestimate them.

But when you happen to watch them in their own element... Russian local political debates for example... many times they start punching each other... in public television.

Or when you are watching the recent events on Russian TV channels... like RTR... that's probably the biggest propaganda I have seen in my lifetime.

And also considering how tense the situation is right now between the Russia and Eastern European countries... it makes the people really angry... maybe people who are sitting safely on their couches thousands of miles away wouldn't understand that but the people who are involved have every reason to be angry, critical and cautious.

I don't know what happens now between Ukraine and Russia. But I do know that on Russia's hate list after Ukraine is Estonia and Latvia. That makes me very serious.

Like Rich said before... Russia probably tries to cover up all the evidences. That's what they have always done. When they killed half the Poland durning the WWII and blamed it all on Germany... no one didn't give a shit about it because they were the "winners" and Germany was the "loser". No one didn't rub the fact that they signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact on their face.

Now that special committee which investigates the crimes of communism and Soviet Russia is active... Putin and Co. is getting really cautious to cover up all their mess.

And considering all the facts they still would lie in your face until you believe them.

[Endrik]

double post
from da east cost

[horns666]

Gotcha E..I just hope you stay safe where you are man. Yeah, I saw vids of some of those political brawls. Russian police beating the dick off of people in broad daylight..in front of cameras..they don't give a fuck!

Well anywhoo..put me in the room at one of their political debates. I won't have a clue what they're sayin'..but I like my fightins'..its fun!

I'll slap 'em with my Billy club!!!

[dk1ben]

I am with horns... People are people no matter what race, creed, religion, or where they take a shit. As for the situation over there goes, I have no idea who actually did what. I do know what the news tells me. But lets face it, by the time the events take place, information starts to flow into the new outlets, the juicy stuff is picked, juicy stuff is spun, then printed and/or put on our TV's. I will never sit back and say, Well It Must Be True... It was on NBC. Or whatever news station I happen to pass over.

As for the what they said on King... Did anyone actually think they would say they were at fault or that the other side was right? Of coarse not.

Just my opinion...

[horns666]

I see this as a huge political oppurtunity for McCain, and so does he. Man, he's all over this like stink on a turd..from day one. While Obama is in Hawaii..gettin' a tan...lookin' all suave and deboner.

Ya know Obama is gonna be fuggin' in the whitehouse..and that's cool. Everytime that happends the economy seems to be doin' pretty good.

That's OK with me..I don't give a fuck.:ROTF:

[lerxstcat]

Well, last night SecDef Gates ruled out military action by the US. He said we haven't spent 45 years building better relations with the Russians to fuck it up over this issue.

So, we have backed down. I guess that's the most practical thing to do. Bush I did it to the Kurds, now Bush II has done it to the Georgians.

Better than nuclear war though, I guess.

Spiral, I read part, not all but part, of that report on Russian TNW. It looks like they took the same approach we have, in counting on TNW to make up for reduced manpower. So yeah, while I still think things would stop short of ICBMS launching, even a limited nuclear exchange by both sides would at the least fuck Europe up pretty badly with residual radiation.

[Jason1212]

Poland has approved installation of US missile interceptor base system.. This was brought on by Poland's fear that with Russia moving into Georgia that they may try to retake Poland. The agreement also includes the US giving Poland Patriot missiles and a mutual agreement to come to one anothers aid in case of trouble. Russia's reply to all of this was basically these actions have opened Poland to an attack. And the war of words continues on. Link